Quantitative Prediction and Evaluation of Paleogene Favorable Hydrocarbon Accumulation Areas with Multi-Dynamic-Stage-Factor Combination in Lufeng Sag, Pearl River Mouth Basin
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摘要: 珠江口盆地陆丰凹陷古近系油气成藏受多种动力多种要素联合控制，因此不能完全依照经典的浮力成藏理论预测有利成藏区带. 通过剖析研究区已经发现的油气藏揭示出三种动力对油气成藏起到了关键作用，包括低位能（背斜类油气藏）、低压能（断块类油气藏）、低界面能（岩性地层类油气藏）；在每一种动力作用下，油气成藏受到有效烃源层、优相储层、区域盖层、低势区带4个功能要素及其时空组合的控制. 通过建立多动力‒多要素复合成藏模式，对陆丰凹陷古近系4个目的层有利成藏区带进行了预测评价，优选出10个最有利目标，为研究区油气深化勘探和钻探目标优选提供了科学依据.Abstract: The Paleogene oil and gas accumulation in Lufeng Sag of the Pearl River Mouth Basin is jointly controlled by a variety of dynamic factors, so the favorable reservoir forming area can not be predicted completely according to the classical buoyancy reservoir forming theory. By analyzing the discovered oil and gas reservoirs in the study area, in this paper it reveals that three driving forces play a key role in oil and gas accumulation, including low-level energy (anticline oil and gas reservoir), low-pressure energy (fault block oil and gas reservoir) and low interface energy (lithologic stratigraphic oil and gas reservoir). Under each dynamic action, oil and gas accumulation is controlled by four functional elements and their temporal and spatial combination: effective source rock, excellent facies reservoir, regional cap rock and low potential zone. By establishing a multi⁃dynamic⁃factor composite reservoir forming model, the favorable reservoir forming zones of four target layers in Lufeng Sag are predicted and evaluated, and 10 most favorable targets are selected, which provides a scientific basis for deepening oil and gas exploration and optimizing drilling targets in the study area.
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图 3 陆丰凹陷排烃强度及其控油气成藏特征
a. 陆丰凹陷现今累计排烃强度（104 t/km2）图；b. 排烃中心相对距离与储量占比的关系
Fig. 3. Hydrocarbon expulsion intensity and hydrocarbon accumulation control characteristics in Lufeng Sag
图 4 陆丰凹陷储层控藏（a）及砂地比与含油气性的关系（b）
Fig. 4. Reservoir control (a) and relationship between sand ground ratio and oil-gas potential (b) in Lufeng Sag
图 5 陆丰凹陷盖层控藏（a）及盖层厚度与储量的关系（b）
Fig. 5. Cap rock controlling reservoir (a) and relationship between cap rock thickness and petroliferous property (b) in Lufeng Sag
图 6 陆丰凹陷古隆起控藏及其控油气特征
a. T40沉积时期文昌组古构造图；b. 古隆起不同位置与油气储量的关系
Fig. 6. Reservoir control of paleo-uplift in Lufeng Sag and its oil and gas control characteristics
图 7 陆丰凹陷低压能控藏及其控油气特征
a. 陆丰凹陷古近系断裂与油藏平面分布图；b. 油气藏距断裂距离与油气储量的关系
Fig. 7. Low pressure controllable reservoirs and their hydrocarbon controlling characteristics in Lufeng Sag
图 8 陆丰凹陷低界面能展布及其控油气特征
a. 陆丰凹陷上文昌组势差分布图；b. 陆丰凹陷势差与含油气性的关系
Fig. 8. Low interface energy distribution and oil and gas control characteristics in Lufeng Sag
图 9 功能要素组合控油气分布概念模型
Fig. 9. Conceptual model of oil and gas distribution controlled by combination of functional elements
图 10 陆丰凹陷多要素和多动力分别控油气成藏分布预测评价结果
a.上恩平组源控油气成藏概率平面分布图；b.上恩平组相控油气成藏概率平面分布图；c.上恩平组盖控油气成藏概率平面分布图；d1.上恩平组断裂带低压能控油气成概率平面分布图；d2.上恩平组砂岩体毛细管力差低界面能控油气成藏概率平面分布图；d3.上恩平组古隆起低位能控概率平面分布图
Fig. 10. Prediction and evaluation results of reservoir formation and distribution controlled by multi⁃factor and multi⁃dynamic in Lufeng Sag
图 11 陆丰凹陷多动力‒多要素组合成藏模式（T-CDPS）预测评价油气藏分布结果
a.背斜油气藏概率平面分布图；b.断块油气藏概率平面分布图；c.岩性油气藏概率平面分布图；d.综合预测油气成藏概率平面分布图
Fig. 11. Prediction and evaluation of reservoir distribution by multi⁃dynamic⁃factor combination reservoir forming model (T⁃CDPS) in Lufeng Sag
图 12 研究区流体定年图和排烃量
Fig. 12. Fluid dating map and hydrocarbon expulsion in the study area
图 13 上恩平组(a) 和下恩平组(b) “多动力‒多期次‒多要素”组合成藏预测结果
Fig. 13. Reservoir forming prediction results of "multi⁃dynamic⁃factor" combination of upper Enping Formation (a) and lower Enping Formation (b)
图 14 上文昌组(a)和下文昌组(b)“多动力‒多期次‒多要素”组合成藏预测结果
Fig. 14. Reservoir forming prediction results of "multi⁃dynamic⁃factor" combination of upper Wenchang Formation (a) and lower Wenchang Formation (b)
表 1 部分探井功能要素成藏概率
Table 1. Reservoir forming probability of functional elements of some exploration wells
井号 层位 各要素成藏概率 C
（区域盖层）D
（沉积相）L、M、F
（低势区）S
（烃源灶）D-1 上文昌 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.95 D-2 上文昌 0.9 0.5 0.35 0.7 D-3 上文昌 0.1 / / 0.65 D-4 上文昌 0.1 / / 0.6 D-5 上文昌 0.1 / 0.1 0.7 D-6 上文昌 0.75 0.4 0.3 0.85 D-7 上文昌 0.27 0.8 0.2 0.4 D-8 上文昌 0.3 0.85 0.2 0.65 D-9 下文昌 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.85 A-6 下文昌 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.8 E-1 下文昌 0.4 0.3 0.45 0.7 E-2 下文昌 0.65 0.3 / / E-3 下文昌 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.85 E-4 下文昌 0.2 0.5 / 0.7 E-5 下文昌 / / / 0.7 E-6 下文昌 0.6 0.3 0.55 0.95 E-7 下文昌 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.7 E-8 下文昌 0.4 0.3 0.45 0.8 E-9 下文昌 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.8 F-1 下文昌 0.7 0.3 0.55 0.95 F-2 下文昌 0.5 0.2 0.45 0.82 F-3 下文昌 0.4 0.3 0.55 0.85 F-4 下文昌 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.7 A-2 下文昌 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.85 F-5 下文昌 0.3 0.5 0.45 0.85 F-6 下文昌 0.2 0.5 0.35 0.6 F-7 下文昌 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.65 A-5 下文昌 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 A-4-1 下文昌 0.3 0.37 0.3 0.9 A-4-2 下文昌 0.3 0.37 0.3 0.9 F-8 下文昌 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.9 
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