Distribution and Risk of Ice Avalanche Hazards in Tibetan Plateau
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摘要:
随着全球气候变暖，青藏高原冰崩灾害日益加剧.通过大量遥感解译及数据分析，系统查明青藏高原冰崩隐患数量、类型、发育规律及危险性：(1)40 269条冰川共发育冰崩隐患581处.按失稳方式分为滑移式和崩落式；按成灾模式分为冰崩直接灾害、冰崩-堵江溃决和冰崩-冰湖溃决灾害.(2)冰崩敏感坡度40°~50°，集中分布高程为4 500~5 500 m，坡向具有“亲北性”.(3)区域分布差异大.西藏和新疆区域分布共占89.5%，雅鲁藏布江和塔里木河流域分布共占80.4%，念青唐古拉山脉和横断山脉分布共占49.4%.(4)空间分异明显.冰崩前缘高程以喜马拉雅东构造结为界，以西呈自西向东增大的趋势，以东呈先减小后增大的“V”型趋势，40.1%的冰崩前缘高程4 500~5 000 m、位于雪线附近，受山脉控制具有气候带交界“群聚性”特点.(5)高危险的冰崩隐患点36处、中等危险215处、低危险330处.
Abstract:With the impact of global warming, the ice avalanche disaster on the Tibetan plateau is becoming more and more serious. Through a large number of remote sensing interpretations and data analysis, the number, types, development patterns and dangers of the hidden ice avalanches on the Tibetan plateau were identified systematically. (1) There are a total of 581 hidden dangers of ice avalanches in 40 269 glaciers. According to the mode of instability, they are divided into sliding type and caving type; according to the disaster mode, they are divided into the direct disaster of the ice avalanche, dammed lake outburst flood and glacial lake outburst flood. (2) The sensitive slope of ice avalanche is 40°-50°, and the concentrated elevation is 4 500-5 500 m, and the slope direction is "northern-friendly". (3) Obvious differences in regional distribution. Tibet and Xinjiang account for 89.5%, Yarlung Zangbo River and Tarim River basins account for 80.4%, Nyainqentanglha and Hengduan Mountains accounted for 49.4%. (4) Significant differentiation in spatial distribution. The elevation of the front edge of the ice avalanche changed regularly with the eastern Himalayan syntaxis region as the boundary. The elevation generally increased from west to east toward the west, while a "V"-shaped trend that first decreased and then increased toward the east. 40.1% of the ice avalanches front elevation was 4 500-5 000 m, located near the snow line and controlled by mountains. It had the characteristics of "clustering" at the junction of climatic zones. (5) There are 330 low-risk ice avalanches, 215 medium-risk points, and 36 high-risk points.
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图 3 冰崩解译示例
a.影像色调为浅灰色，悬挂于冰川前沿冰舌处，坡度约40°；b.冰崩后缘拉张裂隙发育, 碎屑堆积体两侧铲刮明显; 蓝色为所属冰川区域，红色为冰崩隐患区
Fig. 3. Example of remote sensing interpretation for ice avalanche
图 5 冰崩失稳模式分类
a.滑移式冰崩及变形失稳模式; b.崩落式冰崩及变形失稳模式
Fig. 5. Ice avalanche divided by moving mode
图 12 冰崩隐患前后缘高程分布与经纬度关系
Fig. 12. Relation between latitude and longitude with the back edge and toe elevation of ice avalanche
图 14 青藏高原气候类型分布示意
Fig. 14. Distribution of climate types in Tibetan plateau of ice avalanche and temperature
图 16 青藏高原冰崩灾害隐患危险性分区分布
Fig. 16. Distribution of different risks of ice avalanche in Tibetan plateau
图 18 冰崩隐患危险性行政区划、流域、山脉统计
Fig. 18. Statistics of administrative division, river basin and mountain range of potential risk of ice avalanche
图 19 阿汝错冰崩发生前后遥感影像对比
a.冰崩发生前冰川全貌(引自http://jern.uio.no/remotesensing/gaphaz.)；b.冰川表面揉皱破碎化；c.后缘冰裂隙发育；d.冰崩发生后冰川全貌；e.冰崩解体物质铲刮裹挟表面堆积体，基岩出露
Fig. 19. Comparison of remote sensing images before and after the Aru ice avalanches
表 1 裂隙发育程度分类
Table 1. Assessment of development of ice crevasses
发育程度 裂隙数(组) 分布密度 描述 弱发育 < 5 稀疏 分布密度较小，裂缝张开度小，裂面较粗糙，延伸不远 中等发育 5~10 较密集 居于两者之间 强发育 > 10 密集 分布密度较大；裂缝张开度大，裂面较平直，延伸较远 
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表 2 冰崩危险性评价因子
Table 2. Factors of risk assessment of ice avalanche
符号 因子 描述 S1 坡度(°) 坡度对冰崩的发生有明显的控制作用，不仅决定斜坡的应力分布特征，而且影响着冰雪覆盖物、地表径流、坡体松散物的堆积.一般地面坡度越大，冰崩发生的规模和概率也越大 S2 坡向(°) 不同坡向的太阳辐射强度不同，进而影响坡面冰雪覆盖度和蒸发情况 S3 前后缘相对高差
(m)冰崩最大高程与最小高程的差值，体现了冰崩的空间几何特点.高差决定了冰崩势能累积能力的大小，高差越大，灾害发生时的动能也越大 S4 面积(km2) 面积在一定程度上体现了冰储量大小，直接决定了冰崩的物源物质条件；结合坡度S1和高差S3能有效反映冰崩的空间几何特征 S5 裂缝发育程度 冰川表面裂隙密度越大，间距越宽，延伸越长，局部冰体越易沿此裂缝脱离崩落，裂隙发育为冰崩的形成提供有利的物质结构条件 S6 平均月最高气温
(℃/a)气温上升加速冰雪消融，对冰川规模、面积、退缩速度有直接影响，易降低覆盖冰雪稳定性 S7 多年平均降雨量(mm/a) 降雨增加有利于冰川补给，为冰崩提供充足的物源，在雨水冲刷作用下易降低冰雪覆盖层的稳定，降雨量越大危险性越高 S8 距最近构造距离
(km)断裂等地质构造的分布往往影响滑坡、崩塌、地震等灾害发生，构造越发育，坡体稳定性越差，冰崩也有沿断裂带分布的特征 S9 地震发育密度
(次/ km2)地震烈度、震级、次数是冰崩灾害的关键诱因，提取冰崩半径100 km范围内≥5级地震的发生次数，数值越大引发冰崩的规模和概率就越大
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表 3 评价因子权重值
Table 3. Weight of assessment factors
评价因子 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 权重 0.230 7 0.028 8 0.147 2 0.227 4 0.143 8 0.084 5 0.063 6 0.043 6 0.030 4
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表 4 冰崩危险性评价因子基准值划分
Table 4. Benchmark values of assessing factors of ice avalanche
评价因子 低危险(V1) 中危险(V2) 高危险(V3) 坡度(°)/S1 ≤ 25 (25，45) ≥ 45 坡向(°)/S2 N NE、E、SE、
SW、W、NWS 前后缘相对高差(m)/S3 ≤ 500 (500，1 000) ≥ 1 000 面积(km2)/S4 ≤ 1 (1，2) ≥ 2 裂缝发育程度/S5 弱发育 中等发育 强发育 月平均最高温度(℃)/S6 ≤ -5 (-5，5) ≥ 5 年平均降雨量(mm)/S7 ≤ 300 (300，600) ≥ 600 距最近断裂距离(km)/S8 ≥ 10 (1，10) ≤ 1 地震发育密度(次/半径km)/S9 ≤ 5 (5，10) ≥ 10
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表 5 冰崩灾害点危险性等级划分统计
Table 5. Statistics of different risk grades
等级 冰崩个数 占比(%) 低危险性 330 56.80 中危险性 215 37.00 高危险性 36 6.20
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