Hazard Assessment of Debris Flow Triggered by Outburst of Jialong Glacial Lake in Nyalam County, Tibet
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摘要: 冰湖溃决型泥石流是高原山区特殊的地质灾害，以西藏聂拉木县嘉龙湖为例，建立了一套冰湖溃决型泥石流危险性评价方法.以喜马拉雅山区1970—2015年气温波动频次和聂拉木冰湖溃决历史事件预测了未来10年嘉龙湖溃决的时间概率.利用遥感影像识别嘉龙湖上方不稳定冰体的范围和规模，采用美国土木工程师协会推荐公式和修正的三峡库区涌浪计算方法分析了冰川滑坡产生的涌浪规模，从涌浪波压力和越顶水流推力两方面预测了冰碛坝发生失稳的可能性.采用FLO-2D模拟冰湖溃决泥石流的运动过程，以最大流速和泥深表达了嘉龙湖溃决泥石流的危险程度.评价结果表明：2002年嘉龙湖溃决事件与当年气温偏高有关，未来嘉龙湖发生溃决概率高；冰川滑坡激起涌浪能够翻越坝顶，并引起坝体快速侵蚀而溃决；冰湖溃决泥石流对聂拉木县城河道两侧54栋建筑造成威胁.评价方法实现了冰湖溃决型泥石流危险性的定量分析，评价结果对聂拉木县城泥石流防灾具有现实意义.Abstract: The debris flow caused by the outburst of glacial lake is a specific geohazard in the plateau mountainous area. With the study case of Jialong Lake, Nyalam County, Tibet, the hazard assessment model of the debris flow triggered by the outburst of glacial lake was established. Based on the analysis of temperature fluctuation from 1970 to 2015 in the Himalayas area and the historical events of glacial lake outburst in Nyalam County, the temporal probability of the outburst of Jialong Lake in the future 10 years is predicted. The range and magnitude of the unstable ice bodies above Jialong Lake are recognized relying on remote sensing images. The impulse waves generated by glacier landslide are determined with the formula recommended by American Society of Civil Engineers and the modified model of impulse waves in the Three Gorges Reservoir. The pressure of impulse waves and the thrust force of water current acting on the morainal dam are analyzed to assess the failure probability of morainal dam. FlO-2D was used to simulate the movement process of debris flow. The intensity of debris flow triggered by outburst of Jialong Lake were indicated with the maximum velocity and maximum depth of debris flow. The assessment results show that the outburst of Jialong Lake in 2002 was related to the high temperature in that year, and Jialong Lake still has a high probability of outburst in the future; the impulse waves caused by glacial landslide could climb over the top of the morainal dam, which cause rapid erosion and failure of the dam. The debris flow caused by the outburst of Jialong Lake would impact 54 buildings located along the river in Nyalam County. The model proposed in the paper realizes the quantitative hazard assessment of the debris flow caused by glacial lake outburst. The assessment results are of great significance for the risk management of debris flow in Nyalam County.
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Key words:
- glacial lake /
- debris flow /
- hazard assessment /
- glacial landslide /
- environmental geology
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图 2 冰湖溃决型泥石流危险性评价技术流程
Fig. 2. Flow chart of hazard assessment of debris flow caused by glacial lake outburst
图 3 喜马拉雅山地区1970年—2015年气温波动分析
a.年平均气温变化图(据王欣等，2016)；b.10年尺度气温波动次数分布图；c.10年尺度气温波动次数随时间变化趋势
Fig. 3. Temperature fluctuation analysis in the Himalayas from 1970 to 2015
图 4 嘉龙湖上方潜在冰川滑坡影像对比
a.2015年夏；b.2017年冬季
Fig. 4. Comparison of Remote sensing images of potential glacial landslide above Jialong Lake
图 6 嘉龙湖溃决后不同时刻泥石流泥深、流速模拟结果及最大值
Fig. 6. Simulation results of depth and flow velocity of debris flow at different moments after the outburst of Jialong Lake and their maximum values in the runout path
图 7 嘉龙湖溃决泥石流危险性评价结果及其对聂拉木县城建筑物影响
Fig. 7. Hazard zonation of debris flow caused by Jialong Lake outburst and impact on buildings in Nyalam county
表 1 嘉龙湖基本情况
Table 1. Basic information of Jialong Lake
位置 规模 地层岩性 母冰川 冰碛坝 溃决机理 已有防治措施 聂拉木县城西北20.6 km，湖面海拔4 420 m 湖面面积0.67 km2，平均水深36 m 亚东岩群AnZj片麻岩 面积11.89 km2，坡度＞30°，冰裂缝发育，不稳定 有溢流出水点和历史溃决迹象，稳定性差 气候突变，冰体坠落，冰湖涌浪造成溃坝 监测、虹吸管和拦挡坝 
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表 2 嘉龙湖溃决型泥石流危险性评价基础数据
Table 2. Data of hazard assessment of debris flow caused by outburst of Jialong Lake
基础数据 数据来源及时间 遥感影像 GF1、GF2、Google(2015－6；2017－12；2019－10) DEM 西藏测绘局 地质图 聂拉木幅1:25万区域地质调查报告(2002－12) 喜马拉雅山区气温、冰湖及溃决记录 王欣等(2016) 冰湖水深 阿如汉等(2018) 冰碛坝结构及变形 地面调查(2019－10) 松散堆积物分布 地面调查(2019－10)
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表 3 嘉龙湖母冰川不同规模滑坡涌浪计算参数及结果
Table 3. Calculation parameters and results of impulse waves generated by glacier landslide with different scales above Jialong Lake
编号 滑坡参数(m) v(m/s) Hmax(m) Hp(m) T(s) c(m/s) L(m) PB1(kPa) H l w t 1 400 800 500 35 50.00 52.29 12.55 21.87 15.03 328.69 280.5 2 400 440 360 35 50.00 41.23 9.90 20.61 13.35 275.12 221.0 3 400 330 310 35 58.15 36.92 8.87 20.05 12.64 253.36 197.9
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表 4 嘉龙湖终碛坝稳定性计算结果
Table 4. Stability analysis results of moraine dam in Jialong Lake
滑动面 天然 波压力1 波压力2 波压力3 S1 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 S2 1.47 1.41 1.42 1.43 S3 1.98 1.85 1.88 1.89 S4 4.68 4.08 4.19 4.23
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表 5 嘉龙湖冰湖溃决泥石流运动FLO-2D模拟参数
Table 5. FlO-2D parameters for the movement simulation of debris flow caused by Jialong Lake outburst
参数 α1 β1 α2 β2 n Cv K Gs 取值 0.004 62 11.24 0.811 13.72 0.18~0.20 0.5~0.6 1 000~5 000 2.00~2.65
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表 6 泥石流危险性等级划分标准
Table 6. Hazard classification of debris flow
危险性 泥深(m) 关系式 泥深与最大流速乘积 泥石流强度赋值 高 Hd≥2.5 OR VdHd≥2.5 1.0 中 0≤Hd＜2.5 AND 0.5≤VdHd＜2.5 0.7 低 0≤Hd＜2.5 AND VdHd＜0.5 0.3
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