Impacts of Temperature, Precipitation and Human Activity on Vegetation NDVI in Yangtze River Basin, China
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摘要: 为了了解气温、降水量和人类活动对流域植被NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index)的影响，以长江流域为研究区，运用一元线性回归分析法和Theil-Sen Median趋势分析法研究了长江流域气温、降水量和植被NDVI变化特征，同时利用相关分析法和残差分析法探讨气温、降水量和人类活动对植被NDVI变化的影响.结果表明：1960—2015年长江流域年平均温度显著上升，而降水量的变化趋势并不显著；1982—2015年流域NDVI呈显著增加趋势；1982—2015年流域NDVI与气温的相关性较高，然而与降水量的相关性并不显著；人类活动使流域NDVI增加的区域主要分布于流域北部、东南和西南部分地区，而使NDVI下降的区域位于流域中西部区域和长三角地区.气温对长江流域植被NDVI变化的影响大于降水，气候变暖和人类活动对流域生态环境具有一定程度的影响.Abstract: To investigate the impacts of temperature,precipitation and human activity on the vegetation normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) variation,in this study,taking Yangtze River basin (YRB) as the study area,temperature,precipitation and vegetation NDVI variation were analyzed using linear regression (LR) analysis and Theil-Sen Median trend analysis. The impacts of temperature,precipitation and human activity on vegetation NDVI variation were analyzed using the Pearson correlation analysis and residuals analysis. The results show that the annual mean temperature significantly increased over the whole basin during 1960—2015. However,the precipitation shows little change. The annual mean NDVI shows a significant increasing trend over the whole study area during 1982—2015. The correlation coefficients between NDVI and temperature are high. However,the mean NDVI has no significant correlation with annual precipitation. The regions where the NDVI increased caused by human activity were mainly located in the northern,southeastern and southwestern YRB,while the regions where the NDVI decreased caused by human activity were mainly located in the small part of mid-western YRB and YRD. This study highlights that the mean air temperature has stronger effects on vegetation NDVI than precipitation and the effects of global warming and human activity on ecological environment at the local scale.
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Key words:
- temperature /
- precipitation /
- NDVI /
- Yangtze River basin /
- remote sensing
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图 1 长江流域的地理位置和植被覆盖类型
Fig. 1. Location of the Yangtze River basin (YRB) and vegetation cover type
图 2 1960—2015年长江流域年、季平均气温的变化
Fig. 2. The annual and seasonal temperature variation in the YRB during 1960—2015
图 3 1960—2015年长江流域年平均气温(a)和年降水量(b)变化趋势的空间分布
Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of annual mean temperature (a) and precipitation (b) trend during 1960—2015 in the YRB
图 4 1960—2015年长江流域年、季平均降水量的变化
Fig. 4. The annual and seasonal precipitation variation in the YRB during 1960—2015
图 5 1960—2015年长江流域年、季平均NDVI的变化
Fig. 5. The annual and seasonal NDVI variation in the YRB during 1960—2015
图 6 1982—2015年长江流域年平均NDVI变化趋势(a)及其显著性(b)的空间分布
Fig. 6. Spatial distribution of annual mean NDVI variation (a) and its significant test (b) in the YRB during 1982—2015
图 7 1982—2015年长江流域春季、夏季、秋季和冬季平均NDVI变化趋势(a，c，e，g)及其显著性(b，d，f，h)的空间分布
Fig. 7. Spatial distribution of NDVI variation trend in spring, summer autumn and winter (a, c, e, g) and its significant test (b, d, f, h) in the YRB during 1982—2015
图 8 1982—2015年长江流域年平均NDVI与气温(a)、降水量(b)相关系数的空间分布
Fig. 8. Spatial distribution of correlation coefficients between annual mean NDVI and temperature (a) and precipitation (b) during 1982—2015
图 9 NDVI残差变化趋势(a)及其显著性(b)的空间分布
Fig. 9. The spatial pattern of trends (a) and significance (b) in the NDVI residuals
图 10 1995—2010年长江流域人口密度(a)及其变化(b)
Fig. 10. Spatial distribution of the average population density (a) and the changes (b) of population density in YRB from 1995 to 2010
表 1 长江流域气温变化的显著性
Table 1. Significance of temperature variation in the YRB
均值(℃) Z统计量 变化趋势 年 14.3 4.98 显著上升 春 14.3 3.36 显著上升 夏 23.7 1.26 上升 秋 15.1 3.58 显著上升 冬 4.2 3.12 显著上升 
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表 2 长江流域降水量变化的显著性
Table 2. Significance of precipitation variation in the YRB
均值(mm) Z统计量 变化趋势 年 1 081.8 -0.98 下降 春 324.6 -0.11 下降 夏 497.8 1.90 增加 秋 230.0 -1.53 下降 冬 125.1 -1.46 下降
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表 3 长江流域NDVI变化的显著性
Table 3. Significance of NDVI variation in the YRB
均值 Z统计量 变化趋势 年 0.54 3.17 显著增加 春 0.50 4.12 显著增加 夏 0.67 0.47 增加 秋 0.56 2.70 显著增加 冬 0.44 1.25 增加
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表 4 1982—2015年长江流域年平均NDVI与气温、降水的相关系数
Table 4. The correlation coefficient between annual mean NDVI and temperature (precipitation) in the YRB during 1982—2015
时间 NDVI 气温 年 0.49*** 春 0.65*** 夏 0.43*** 秋 0.38** 冬 0.50*** 降水量 年 -0.23 春 -0.26 夏 -0.13 秋 -0.15 冬 -0.11 注：*、**和***分别表示0.1、0.05和0.01显著性水平.
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表 5 2001—2013年长江流域主要土地利用类型的相互转换(102 km2)
Table 5. The conversion of land use during 2001—2013
土地利用类型 草地 城镇用地 灌丛 林地 农田 草地 3 137.42 5.97 271.02 352.44 307.65 城镇用地 15.18 76.37 122.14 107.72 187.74 灌丛 313.43 12.58 1 593.83 2 263.58 777.31 林地 89.91 1.18 242.21 3 638.01 103.78 农田 52.72 29.84 515.31 268.67 2 184.93 变化量 -465.84 -383.21 -2 216.22 2 555.33 509.94
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