A Precise Prediction Model on Debris Flows Caused by Runoff Mechanism Based on Channel Width and Particle Size
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摘要: 泥石流形成区沟床宽度和颗粒粒径对沟床起动型泥石流的发生影响很大，在强烈地震影响区内显得尤为突出，但目前的泥石流预报中还没考虑到这两个因素，无法准确预测强震区泥石流的发生.在泥石流10 min和1 h精细化预报模型基础上，通过现场调查群发泥石流事件，结合汶川地震强烈影响区泥石流的演化特点，引入了泥石流形成区沟道宽度和颗粒粒径的影响，建立了改进的精细化泥石流10 min和1 h预报模型，并在贵州望谟打易和四川德昌群发泥石流、汶川地震强烈影响区的文家沟多次泥石流事件中获得了很好的验证结果，得出泥石流形成区的颗粒粒径代表泥石流的地质因子，泥石流形成区沟床宽度代表泥石流的地形因子之一，这2个因子在泥石流发生中的作用都非常重要；改进的精细化10 min和1 h预报模型以及临界值，可以用于强烈地震区和一般的泥石流预报.Abstract: The channel width and particle size in the formation area of debris flow catchment are important factors in the initiation of debris flows caused by runoff mechanism. This phenomenon is often found in the debris flows in strong earthquake area. Up to now, there is no prediction model of debris flow involving these two factors. Based on the 10 min and 1 h precise prediction model of debris flow, this study proposes a revised 10 min and 1 h precise prediction model of debris flow with channel width and particle size by field investigations. The validations were made in the group debris flow events of Dayi, Wangmo County, Guizhou Province, in the group debris flow events of Dechang, Sichuan Province, and a series debris flows in Wenjia Gully located in the Wenchuan earthquake area. The validations were successful in these debris flows events. It is concluded that the particle size in the formation area of debris flow catchment is the geological factor, and the channel width of the formation area of debris flow catchment is one of the topographical factor. Both of them are very important in the formation of debris flows. The revised 10 min and 1 h precise prediction model of debris flows can be used for forecasting of the ordinary debris flows and debris flows in strong earthquake area.
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Key words:
- debris flow /
- runoff /
- channel width /
- particle size /
- disaster prediction
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图 2 2011年6月6日贵州望谟打易附近泥石流发生分布及四川德昌和清平文家沟位置示意图
Fig. 2. The distribution of debris flows at Dayi, Wangmo, Guizhou on June 6, 2011, and the location of the Dechang, and the Wenjia Gully, Qingping, Sichuan
图 3 望谟打易泥石流流域分布
1.三叠系边阳组（T2b）；2.泥石流沟口；3.泥石流沟道编号；4.沟道、河道；5.水流方向；6.剖面线
Fig. 3. The distribution of the catchments of debris flows at Dayi, Wangmo
图 6 1 h模型在德昌验证(a)和1 h模型在文家沟验证(b)
Fig. 6. Validation in Dechang for 1 h model (a) and in Wenjia Gully for 1 h model (b)
图 5 10 min模型在打易验证(a)和1h模型在打易验证(b)
Fig. 5. Validation in Dayi for 10 min model (a) and 1 h model (b)
表 1 改进模型与原模型预测结果在打易和德昌泥石流的对比
Table 1. The comparison of prediction of revised model and the old model in debris flows of Dayi and Dechang
地域 模型 泥石流 无泥石流 绿色* 橙色# 红色@ 绿色 橙色 红色 打易 原模型10 min 0 5 19 10 3 9 改进模型10 min 0 6 18 19 1 2 打易 原模型1 h 0 5 9 10 3 9 改进模型1 h 0 6 18 19 1 2 德昌 原模型1 h 1 3 6 3 4 0 改进模型1 h 1 7 2 7 0 0 注：“*”表示低临界值以下，安全区；“#”表示高、低临界值之间，警报区；“@”表示高临界值以上，避难区；表中数字指位于该区域内的预测点个数. 
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表 2 文家沟降雨特征
Table 2. The characteristics of rainfall at Wenjia Gully
时间 总降雨量（mm） 最大小时降雨量（mm） 泥石流发生 2008-09-24 88.0 30.5 是 2010-07-31 60.2 51.7 是 2010-08-13 185.9 70.6 是 2010-08-19 72.6 31.9 是 2010-09-18 52.0 29.0 是 1995-08-15 496.5* 49.8 否 100年一遇 474.0* 95.0 否 注：“*”表示24 h降雨量.
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