Rainfall Warning of Creeping Landslide in Yunyang County of Three Gorges Reservoir Region Based on Displacement Ratio Model
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摘要: 建立高效合理的区域滑坡灾害降雨预警模型对滑坡防治具有重要意义.然而以往的研究多侧重于临滑预警，对蠕变型滑坡在强降雨工况下的短暂加速变形的预警研究还有待深入.以三峡库区云阳县域内滑坡为例，首先根据滑坡地表位移监测数据的特点对统计样本进行合理筛选.再通过降雨因子与滑坡发生的相关性分析以及对滑坡在降雨条件下位移变化情况的数值模拟，确定了适用于不同时间阶段的降雨统计变量.然后将考虑了滑坡规模特征的滑坡位移比（累计位移与滑坡纵长之比）作为变形指标，分时段统计滑坡地表位移监测数据与历史降雨信息，建立了日降雨数据与月位移数据的对应关系，得到了可用于确定降雨量阈值的位移比模型，并获得了云阳县蠕变型滑坡的五级预警分区.最后分别选用研究区滑坡险情实例、长年位移监测数据及极端降雨事件对模型预警效果进行检验.结果显示基于专业监测数据的位移比模型的滑坡降雨预警结果与实际情况相符，可为蠕变型滑坡的预警预报提供依据.Abstract: Establishing the efficient and reasonable regional landslide hazards rainfall warning model plays an important role in landslide prevention. However, more previous studies have been focused on the early warning before sliding rather than on the temporary accelerated deformation of creeping landslide after the heavy rainfall. Taking landslides in Yunyang County of the Three Gorges Reservoir region as an example, statistical samples were selected reasonably according to the characteristics of the landslide surface displacement monitoring data firstly. Then the rainfall statistical variable applied to different time periods was determined by correlation analysis between rainfall index and landslide occurrence, and numerical simulation of displacement change of landslides in the rainfall condition. The displacement ratio (ratio of cumulative displacement and length of landslide) considering the scale characteristic of landslide was selected as the landslide deformation index and monitoring data of landslides and historical rainfall information in different time periods were counted. The relationship between daily rainfall data and monthly displacement data was built up. The displacement ratio model which can determine the rainfall thresholds was obtained, and fivelevel warning partition of creeping landslides in Yunyang County was determined. Finally, landslide instances, long-time displacement monitoring data and extreme rainfall event in research area were used to test the warning results of this model, respectively. The results show that the warning results of this model based on monitoring system data were the same as real conditions, and it could provide the basis for the early warning and prediction of the creeping landslides.
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图 1 云阳县地理位置及滑坡灾害分布
Fig. 1. The location of Yunyang County and distribution of the landslides
图 2 研究区地质构造纲要图及典型剖面
a.研究区工程地质纲要图；b. A-A’剖面图
Fig. 2. The geological structure outline and typical profile of the study area
图 3 不同类型的滑坡累积位移曲线
Fig. 3. Different kinds of cumulative displacement curves of landslide
图 4 滑坡监测点统计样本筛选结果
Fig. 4. The statistical samples result of warning sites of landslides
图 5 重庆地区历史滑坡时间分布规律
Fig. 5. The time distribution law of history landslides in Chongqing area
图 6 滑坡发生前n天降雨量因子与滑坡事件的相关性
Fig. 6. The correlation relationship between rainfall index and landslide in n days before landslide
图 7 云阳县汛期各降雨过程持续时间的分布情况
Fig. 7. The duration distribution of rainfall process in the rainy season in Yunyang County
图 8 云阳县蠕变型滑坡位移比与降雨量关系图
Fig. 8. The relationship between displacement ration and rainfall of creeping landslides in Yunyang County
图 9 部分滑坡的位移比变化规律图
Fig. 9. The laws of ratio of displacement and length of some landslides
图 10 2016年滑坡实例的模型预警结果和实际情况对比图
Fig. 10. The comparison between model warning results and actual situations of landslide cases in 2016
图 11 云阳县蠕变型滑坡的阶跃式位移曲线
Fig. 11. The step-like displacement curve of creeping landslide in Yunyang County
图 12 滑坡位移阶跃期的模型预警结果和实际情况对比
Fig. 12. The comparation between the model warning results and the actual situations
表 1 云阳县蠕变型滑坡信息统计表
Table 1. Statistics results of creeping landslides in Yunyang County
滑坡信息 具体信息 滑坡个数 统计参数 平均数 标准差 变异系数 最大位移量(mm) 0~800 18 188 179 0.95 800~2 000 2 1 400 200 0.14 2 000~5 000 2 4 150 450 0.11 坡体结构 顺向坡 19 逆向坡 3 剖面形态 直线型 10 弧形 3 靠椅状 9 坡高比 0~0.4 19 0.25 0.08 0.32 0.4~0.8 3 0.54 0.16 0.30 内聚力(kPa) 10~30 12 25.6 3.7 0.14 30~50 8 41.2 6.9 0.17 50~100 2 58.0 2.0 0.03 内摩擦角(°) 10~20 9 17.6 2.3 0.13 20~30 12 25.1 3.2 0.13 > 30 1 32.0 
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表 2 云阳县蠕变型滑坡分时段降雨统计变量
Table 2. Rainfall indices in different periods of creeping landslides in Yunyang County
时间段 库水位运行方式 统计变量 降雨时间 累积降雨量 5月 下降 连续4日累计降雨量 ≥30 mm 6~8月 低水位 连续5日累计降雨量 ≥30 mm 9月 上升 连续4日累计降雨量 ≥30 mm
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表 3 滑坡变形特征指标对比
Table 3. Comparison of deformation characteristic indices of landslides
指标种类 考虑到的因素 数据来源 精度 不足 累计位移量 滑坡运动 实地测量或监测 较高 考虑因素较单一 位移速率 滑坡运动 监测数据或目测估算 较高（部分情况较低） 瞬时速率计算精度不高 切线角 滑坡运动、本构关系 滑坡位移-时间曲线 较高 定义不严密，数值不确定(许强等，2009) 位移比 滑坡运动、滑坡规模 监测数据、滑坡基本资料 较高 应用较少
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表 4 典型滑坡在不同变形阶段的位移比
Table 4. The ratio of displacement and length of typical landslides in different deformation phases
滑坡名称 地点 缓慢变形阶段位移（mm） 匀速变形阶段位移（mm） 滑坡长度（m） 缓慢阶段位移比 匀速阶段位移比 新滩滑坡 湖北秭归 < 198 306~3 060 2 000 < 9.9×10-5 (15.3~153.0)×10-5 鸡鸣寺滑坡 湖北秭归 < 39.6 114~380 250 < 15.8×10-5 (45.6~152.0)×10-5 黄茨滑坡 甘肃永靖 50~175 370 (13.5~47.3)×10-5 曾家棚滑坡 重庆奉节 16~29 118~132 610 (2.6~4.8)×10-5 (19.3~21.6)×10-5 黄莲树滑坡 重庆奉节 164~224 315~3 365 600 (27.3~37.3)×10-5 (52.5~560.8)×10-5
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表 5 云阳县蠕变型滑坡预警分区
Table 5. The warning levels of creeping landslide in Yunyang County
预警等级 所处变形阶段 灾害发生情况 防御措施(吴益平等，2014) 连续n日降雨量（mm） 1~2级 基本无变形或变形极小 可能性小 不采取措施或注意灾害点的监测情况 0~89.4 3级 缓慢变形 可能性中等 启动灾害隐患点的群测群防工作，提醒灾害区内人员关注灾害动态 89.4~157.1 4级 等速变形或短暂加速变形 可能性较大 加强对灾害点的监测，对灾害危险区开展预防应急措施 157.1~200.6 5级 加速变形至破坏 可能性极大 全天候对隐患点进行监测，组织紧急疏散通道和救灾体系 > 200.6
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表 6 2016年云阳县滑坡险情统计信息
Table 6. The statistical information of Yunyang County landslides in the year of 2016
险情发生时间 地点 降雨变量值(mm) 模型预警结果 该等级下应采取的措施（据表 5） 实际处置情况 2016.6.3 龙洞镇 97.3 3级预警 启动灾害隐患点的群测群防工作，提醒灾害区内人员关注灾害动态 已设立群测群防点，提醒居民密切注意监测数据及宏观变形 2016.7.1 龙角镇 126.2 3级预警 同上 紧急撤离居民，事后启动了该点的群测群防工作 2016.7.1 凤鸣镇 139.3 3级预警 同上 启动了该点的群测群防工作
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