基于GIS的改进AHP型脆弱性指数法

刘守强; 武强; 曾一凡; 宫厚健; 李哲

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2017.049

基于GIS的改进AHP型脆弱性指数法

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2017.049

中国矿业大学国家煤矿水害防治工程技术研究中心，北京 100083

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划重点专项项目 2016YFC0801801

国家自然科学基金项目 41602262

高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目 20130023120018

国家自然科学基金项目 41272276

详细信息

作者简介:
刘守强 (1981-)，男，博士，主要从事矿井水害方面的教学与研究工作.ORCID:0000-0003-2755-6853.E-mail: sqliu@cumtb.edu.cn

中图分类号: P641.4
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2016-11-12
- 刊出日期: 2017-04-15

The Improved AHP Vulnerable Index Method Based on GIS

National Engineering Research Center of Coal Mine Water Hazard Controlling, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing 100083, China

摘要

摘要: AHP法是煤层底板突水预测预报的关键技术之一，但传统基于“1~9”标度的AHP法往往存在一致性效果不够理想等问题.通过对AHP法的改进研究，提出了基于“10/10~18/2”标度的改进AHP法型脆弱性指数法评价技术.以成庄矿3^#、9^#和15^#煤层底板奥灰突水脆弱性评价为例，在建立各主控因素专题层图基础上，应用基于“10/10~18/2”新标度的改进AHP法，确定了各主控因素的权重；进一步建立了煤层底板奥灰突水的脆弱性评价模型，得出了各煤层脆弱性评价分区.研究表明，改进的AHP法构建的判断矩阵具有较好的一致性；通过与传统突水系数法评价结果对比可知，基于GIS的改进AHP型脆弱性指数法评价能够真实反映多因素影响下煤层底板突水的非线性动力过程，评价结果更为吻合实际.
- 底板突水 /
- 脆弱性指数法 /
- 改进的AHP /
- 非线性分析 /
- 水文地质
Abstract: The AHP method is one of the key technologies in predicting coal seam floor water inrush. But, the traditional AHP method, which is based on 1-9 scale, often has some problems. For example, the consistency effect is not ideal. Therefore, through the research on these problems, the technique of the improved AHP vulnerable index method, which is based on 10/10-18/2 scale, was put forward. Then, the vulnerability evaluation of the No. 3, 9 and 15 coal in Chengzhuang coalmine was taken as an example. Firstly, based on the establishment of the thematic layers diagrams of eight main factors, the weight of each main factors was determined using the improved AHP method. Then, the vulnerability evaluation model of the floor water inrush from the Ordovician limestone aquifer was constructed. Finally, the vulnerability zoning of each part in the study area of the No.3, 9 and 15 coal mine were obtained. The results showed that the judgment matrix constructed by the improved AHP method has better consistency effect. Furthermore, compared with the results of the traditional water inrush coefficient method, the results of the improved AHP vulnerability index method, which can truly reflect the nonlinear dynamic process of the floor water inrush under multi-factor affection, are more consistent with the actual.
- floor water inrush /
- vulnerable index method /
- improved AHP /
- nonlinear analysis /
- hydrogeology.

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图 1 水文地质概化模型

Fig. 1. Hydrogeological generalized model

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图 2 煤层底板奥灰带压分区

a.3^#煤层奥灰带压分区；b.9^#煤层奥灰带压分区；c.15^#煤层奥灰带压分区

Fig. 2. Pressure zoning sketch of the coal seam floor

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图 3 各煤层主控因素专题层

a、d、g、j、m.3^#煤层；b、e、h、k、n.9^#煤层；c、f、i、l、o.15^#煤层；a、b、c.有效隔水层等效厚度；d、e、f.矿压破坏带下脆性岩厚度；g、h、i.陷落柱分布危险性系数；j、k、l.断层和褶皱轴的分布危险性系数；m、n、o.断层和褶皱轴的交点及端点的分布危险性系数；厚度单位 (m)

Fig. 3. Thematic sketch of main control factors of each coal seam

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图 4 断层规模指数专题层

Fig. 4. Thematic sketch of the fault scale index

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图 5 奥灰富水性专题层

Fig. 5. Thematic sketch of the richness of limestone aquifer

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图 6 奥灰水压专题层

Fig. 6. Thematic sketch of the pressure of limestone aquifer

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图 7 3^#、9^#、15^#煤层底板奥灰突水脆弱性评价层次分析结构模型

Fig. 7. Level analysis structural model of the water vulnerability evaluation of ordovician limestone under 3^#、9^#、15^#coal

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图 8 煤层底板脆弱性指数频数直方图

Fig. 8. Frequency histogram of the vulnerability index of the coal seam floor

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图 9 煤层脆弱性指数法评价分区

a.3^#脆弱性指数法评价分区；b.9^#脆弱性指数法评价分区；c.15^#脆弱性指数法评价分区

Fig. 9. Evaluation of the coal using the vulnerability

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图 10 突水系数法评价分区

a.3^#突水系数法评价分区；b.9^#突水系数法评价分区；c.15^#突水系数法评价分区

Fig. 10. Evaluation of the coal using the water inrush coefficient method

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表 1 新标度与传统标度对照

Table 1. Comparison table of the new scale and the traditional scale

传统标度 (k)(k=1~9)	改进标度 (10/10~18/2)	释义
1	10/10	同等重要
3	12/8	稍微重要
5	14/6	明显重要
7	16/4	非常重要
9	18/2	极端重要
k	(9+k)/(11-k)

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表 2 10/10~18/2标度对应RI值

Table 2. The value ofRIin the 10/10-18/2 scale

m	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
RI	0	0	0.169 0	0.259 8	0.328 7	0.369 4	0.400 7	0.416 7	0.437 0

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表 3 奥灰突水脆弱性评价的判断矩阵及权重 (j=1~3)

Table 3. Judgment matrix and weight of the water vulnerability evaluation of Ordovician limestone water inrush (j=1-3)

指标	B₁	B₂	B₃	W(A/B_j)
B₁	10/10	12/8	9/11	0.350 1
B₂	8/12	10/10	8/12	0.249 6
B₃	11/9	12/8	10/10	0.400 3
λ_max=3.004 5，CI₀=0.002 2，CR₀=0.013 0.

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表 4 B层次判断矩阵及权重 (i=1~8, j=1~3)

Table 4. Judgment matrix and weight of level B (i=1-8, j=1-3)

指标	C₁	C₂	C₃	C₄	C₅	C₆	C₇	C₈	B_j/C_i	相关指标
C₁	10/10	11/9	-	--	--	--	--	--	0.55	λ_max=2，CI₁=0，CR₁不存在
C₂	9/11	10/10	-	--	--	--	--	--	0.45	λ_max=2，CI₁=0，CR₁不存在
C₃	--	--	10/10	15/5	--	--	--	--	0.75	λ_max=2，CI₂=0，CR₂不存在
C₄	--	--	5/15	10/10	--	--	--	--	0.25	λ_max=2，CI₂=0，CR₂不存在
C₅	--	--	--	--	10/10	10/10	16/4	17/3	0.43	λ_max=4.025 6， CI₃=0.008 5， CR₃=0.032 8
C₆	--	--	--	--	10/10	10/10	15/5	16/4	0.37
C₇	--	--	--	--	4/16	5/15	10/10	10/10	0.11
C₈	--	--	--	--	3/17	4/16	10/10	10/10	0.10

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表 5 奥灰突水脆弱性评价指标权重

Table 5. The weight of the index of the vulnerability evaluation of Ordovician limestone water inrush

目标层	准则层	W(A/B_j)	指标层	W(B_j/C_i)	W(A/C_i)
奥灰突水脆弱性评价	承压含水层	0.350 1	奥灰水压	0.550 0	0.192 6
	承压含水层	0.350 1	奥灰富水性	0.450 0	0.157 5
	底板隔水层	0.249 6	有效隔水层等效厚度	0.750 0	0.187 2
	底板隔水层	0.249 6	矿压破坏带下脆性岩厚度	0.250 0	0.062 4
	地质构造	0.400 3	陷落柱分布	0.433 3	0.173 5
			断层和褶皱轴分布	0.369 2	0.147 8
			断层规模指数	0.106 5	0.042 6
			断层和褶皱轴交点及端点分布	0.091 0	0.036 4

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