基于有效降雨强度的滑坡灾害危险性预警

吴益平; 张秋霞; 唐辉明; 肖威

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2014.083

基于有效降雨强度的滑坡灾害危险性预警

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2014.083

1.
中国地质大学工程学院, 湖北武汉 430074
2.
西北核技术研究所, 陕西西安 710024

基金项目:

国家重点基础研究发展计划 2011CB710606

国家自然科学基金 41272307

详细信息

作者简介:
吴益平(1971-), 女, 教授, 博士, 主要从事岩土工程及工程地质相关的教学及科研工作.E-mail: ypwu@cug.edu.cn

通讯作者:
唐辉明, E-mail: hmtang6205@sina.com

中图分类号: P642.22
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2013-12-30
- 刊出日期: 2014-07-15

Landslide Hazard Warning Based on Effective Rainfall Intensity

1.
Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
2.
Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, Xi'an 710024, China

摘要

摘要: 选取湖北省恩施地区1 000 km²区域作为典型研究区, 在全面分析该区域历史滑坡资料的基础上, 根据该区滑坡生成与地层岩性之间的关系, 将研究区地层划分为高、中、低3类易发性岩组.分岩组统计降雨监测数据与历史滑坡信息, 得出有效降雨强度与关键降雨持续时间的散点图, 由此确定不同滑坡发生概率的有效降雨强度阈值, 提出该区的滑坡灾害危险性预警判别模型.基于样本区统计数据建立滑坡预测指标体系, 运用GIS得出研究区域的滑坡空间易发性区划结果, 并根据不同易发岩组-有效降雨强度模型, 叠加滑坡灾害易发性分区结果与降雨危险性预警等级分级结果, 对研究区的滑坡灾害危险性进行了预测预警.结果表明: 不同易发岩组-有效降雨强度模型所得预警结果与实际情况吻合, 预警模型具有考虑全面和预警精度高的特点, 在实际预警中切实可用.
- 滑坡 /
- 易发岩组 /
- 有效降雨强度 /
- 危险性预警
Abstract: A region of 1 000 km² in Enshi, Hubei Province is chosen as the typical study area, and its historical landslide data are comprehensively analyzed in this paper. The strata in the study area are divided into three types including high, middle and low susceptible petrofabrics according to the relationship between local landslide formation and lithology. The scatter diagrams about effective rainfall intensity and critical duration are obtained based on rainfall monitoring data and historical information of landslides in each petrofabric. Thus effective rainfall intensity thresholds are determined and landslide hazard warning model of the study area is suggested. In this study, landslide prediction evaluating system is firstly established based on data of sample area, and then landslide susceptibility distribution map is obtained by using GIS. According to Different Susceptible Petrofabric-Effective Rainfall Intensity Models, the landslide hazard warning is realized by overlaying landslide susceptibility distribution map and rainfall risk grade distribution results. Results show that the hazard warning results fit well with the actual situation. Thus, the warning model is verified to be effective, accurate and comprehensive to provide scientific evidence for preventing and reducing disasters.
- landslide /
- susceptible petrofabric /
- effective rainfall intensity /
- hazard warning

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图 1 重点研究区位置

Fig. 1. Location of study area

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图 2 滑坡与地层关系

Fig. 2. The relationship between landslide and formation

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图 3 鄂西恩施地区部分滑坡发生当日降雨量与前期有效降雨量散点图

Fig. 3. Scatter diagram of landslide effective rainfall- rainfall in Enshi section of western Hubei

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图 4 高易发岩组滑坡有效降雨强度阈值

Fig. 4. Effective rainfall intensity threshold of landslide in the high susceptibility petrofabric

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图 5 中易发岩组滑坡有效降雨阈值

Fig. 5. Effective rainfall intensity threshold of landslide in the middle susceptibility petrofabric

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图 6 低易发岩组滑坡有效降雨阈值

Fig. 6. Effective rainfall intensity threshold of landslide in the low susceptibility petrofabric

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图 7 恩施地区滑坡灾害危险性预警

Fig. 7. Risk warning of landslide in Enshi

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表 1 滑坡发生前6日有效降雨量与滑坡发生的相关性

Table 1. Correlation between landslide and effective rainfall 6 days before the occurence of landslide

降雨量	1日有效降雨量	前2日有效降雨量	前3日有效降雨量	前4日有效降雨量	前5日有效降雨量	前6日有效降雨量	一周累计降雨量	一次过程降雨量	一月累计降雨量
相关系数	0.550	0.546	0.607	0.560	0.669	0.582	0.346	0.378	0.486

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表 2 预警区等级初步划分

Table 2. Classification of hazard level in warning area

空间区划	低危险性	中危险性	高危险性
高易发区	不预警区(2级)	4级预警区	5级预警区
中易发区	不预警区(1级)	3级预警区	4级预警区
低易发区	不预警区(1级)	3级预警区	4级预警区
不易发区	不预警区(1级)	不预警区(1级)	不预警区(2级)

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表 3 预警等级含义及其防御措施

Table 3. Meaning of warning level and corresponding defense measures

预警等级灾害发生情况(24 h内)		防御措施
1级预警区	灾害发生可能性极小	不采取措施
2级预警区	灾害发生可能性较小	启动重要灾害隐患点的群测群防工作
3级预警区	灾害发生可能性中等(注意)	注意对灾害点的监测，采取防御措施，提醒灾害易发区内的人员关注灾害动态
4级预警区	灾害发生可能性较大(预警)	应加强对灾害点的监测，对灾害危险区应开展预防应急措施
5级预警区	灾害发生可能性极大(警报)	应全天候对灾害点进行监测，建立防御措施和救灾体系、组织紧急疏散通道等

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表 4 有效降雨引起的滑坡危险性等级划分

Table 4. Risk grades distribution for landslide induced by effective rainfall

散点所处位置	10%下方	10%~25%	25%~50%	50%上方
危险性等级	无危险性	低危险性	中危险性	高危险性

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表 5 2007年8月1日滑坡前期降雨数据

Table 5. Antecedent rainfall data of landslide occurred on August 1, 2007

时间	7月27日	7月28日	7月29日	7月30日	7月31日	8月1日
降雨量(mm)	2.6	2.2	20.0	39.5	3.5	4.6

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表 6 2007年8月1日滑坡危险性预警等级

Table 6. Hazard warning classification of landslide occurred on August 1, 2007

岩组	高易发岩组			中易发岩组			低易发岩组
滑坡发生概率(%)	50	25	10	50	25	10	50	25	10
有效降雨强度阈值(mm/d)	8.77	3.97	1.94	15.00	7.07	3.33	18.68	12.01	7.72

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