Numerical Simulation on Influences of Wenchuan Earthquake on the Stability of Faults in the Neighborhood
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摘要: 大地震发生后, 研究地震的发生对周围断层的影响尤为重要.利用川西-藏东地区三维粘弹性有限元模型，考虑地表高程和粘弹性松弛等因素的影响，研究主要断裂带库仑应力累积速率和汶川地震的发生对周围断层的影响.结果表明：(1)龙门山断裂带年累积速率为0.28×10-3~0.35×10-3 MPa/a，这种较小的累积速率与龙门山断裂带强震较长复发间隔一致；(2)汶川地震的发生除造成震源区应力减小外, 还造成断裂带北东段不同程度的应力增加, 这与震后余震的分布基本吻合；(3)鲜水河断裂北西段、东昆仑、龙日坝、岷江以及虎牙断裂库仑应力水平增加显著，且汶川地震对于玉树地震的发生有微弱的加载效应；(4)汶川地震的发生造成鲜水河断裂带强震复发间隔缩短约52~104 a，是值得关注的强震危险区.Abstract: When a major earthquake occurred, it's critical to analyze the influences on the surrounding faults and the potential seismic activity. In this paper, a complex viscoelastic model of western Sichuan and eastern Tibet regions is constructed including the topography, and then we find out the Coulomb failure stressing rate on these major faults and calculate the stress change caused by the Wenchuan earthquake taking the post-seismic relaxation into consideration. Our preliminary results indicate that: (1) the Coulomb stressing rate in the Longmen Shan fault is lower with values from 0.28×10-3 MPa/a to 0.35×10-3 MPa/a, which is consistent with the previous long reccurrence interval of Wenchuan earthquake; (2) The Wenchuan earthquake not only caused the Coulomb failure stress decrease in the source region, but also the stress increase in the northeastern segment, and it's comparatively consistent with the aftershock distribution; (3) The Coulomb failure stress change caused by Wenchuan earthquake showed significant increase on five major fault segments, which were northwestern segment of Xianshui fault, eastern Kunlun fault, Longriba fault, Minjiang fault and Huya fault respectively, also the Coulomb failure stress on the fault plane of the Yushu earthquake was faintly increased; (4) The characteristic earthquake recurrence interval of the Xianshui fault is delayed by 52-104 a deduced from the Wenchuan earthquake, so it's ranked the high seismic hazard region in the future.
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图 1 川西藏东地区地质构造模型简图
F1.昆仑山口-江错断裂；F2.东昆仑断裂；F3.龙日坝断裂；F4.岷江断裂；F5.虎牙断裂；F6.龙门山断裂；F7.甘孜-玉树-风火山断裂；F8.鲜水河断裂；F9.安宁河断裂；F10.则木河断裂；●Ms＞7.0
Fig. 1. Sketchy geological model in the western Sichuan and eastern Tibet regions
图 2 川西-藏东地区三维有限元模型
F1~F10为活动断裂带；右上图为模型局部高程放大5倍的结果
Fig. 2. Three dimensional discretization model in the target zone
图 3 标准线性固体蠕变曲线(a)与松弛曲线(b)
Fig. 3. Creep (a) and relaxation (b) curves of the standard linear solid body
图 4 2004-2007年GPS实测值与模拟结果对比
Fig. 4. Comparison between 2004-2007 GPS measurement and the predicted in model
图 5 上地壳主要活动断裂带库仑破裂应力累积速率
F1.昆仑山口-江错断裂；F2.东昆仑断裂；F3.龙日坝断裂；F4.岷江断裂；F5.虎牙断裂；F6.龙门山断裂；F7.甘孜-玉树-风火山断裂；F8.鲜水河断裂；F9.安宁河断裂；F10.则木河断裂
Fig. 5. Coulomb failure stressing rate of the mainly active faults in the bottom of upper crust
图 6 断层面上静态位移量分布结果(据Ji and Hayes, 2008数据绘制)
Fig. 6. Distribution of the co-seismic displacement in the seismogenic fault
图 7 汶川地震的发生造成周围主要断层的库仑应力变化
F1.昆仑山口-江错断裂；F2.东昆仑断裂；F3.龙日坝断裂；F4.岷江断裂；F5.虎牙断裂；F6.龙门山断裂；F7.甘孜-玉树-风火山断裂；F8.鲜水河断裂；F9.安宁河断裂；F10.则木河断裂
Fig. 7. Coulomb stress change on major faults caused by the Wenchuan earthquake
图 8 鲜水河断裂带北西段上强震活动
Fig. 8. Seismic activity in northwestern segment of Xianshuihe fault
表 1 主要活动断裂几何参数
Table 1. Geometric parameters of the major active faults
断裂名称 走向 倾向 倾角 活动性质 鲜水河断裂(西北段) N40°W NE/SW 陡 左旋走滑 鲜水河断裂(南东段) N20°W NE/SW 60°~80° 左旋走滑 昆仑山口-江错断裂 EW N/S 陡 左旋逆走滑 甘孜-玉树-风火山断裂 NW NE 陡 左旋走滑 东昆仑断裂 NWW NE/SW 55°~85° 左旋逆走滑 龙门山断裂 N45°E NW 65°(上)，25°(下) 右旋逆走滑 安宁河断裂 NS E/W 陡 左旋逆走滑 则木河断裂 N25°W SW 60°~70° 左旋逆走滑 龙日坝断裂 N60°E NW 陡 右旋走滑 岷江断裂 NS E/W 70°~80° 左旋逆走滑 虎牙断裂 NNW E/W 陡 左旋走滑 
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表 2 地壳上地幔介质模型参数
Table 2. Material properties of the crust and upper mantle media
分层 厚度(km) 介质分区 杨氏模量E(104 MPa) 泊松比ν 黏性系数η(1019Pa·s) 地表 0~5 1 6.08 0.25 100 2 2.03 0.25 100 上地壳 5~16 3 8.10 0.25 100 4 8.37 0.25 100 5 8.65 0.25 100 6 2.70 0.26 100 7 2.74 0.26 100 中地壳 16~30 8 2.90 0.26 100 9 7.70 0.26 1 10 8.97 0.25 10 11 9.56 0.25 10 12 2.57 0.28 1 13 2.77 0.28 1 14 2.88 0.28 1 下地壳 30~65 15 10.5 0.28 10 16 11.6 0.26 10 17 14.4 0.26 10 18 3.50 0.30 10 19 3.67 0.30 10 20 4.33 0.30 10 上地幔 65~100 21 14.9 0.30 10 22 16.5 0.28 10 23 18.6 0.26 10 24 4.97 0.35 10 25 5.23 0.35 10 26 5.57 0.35 10 断裂带：摩擦系数0.4，龙门山断裂带取0.6；内聚强度40 MPa
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