Impact of Climate Change on Surface Water Resources
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摘要: 总结了气候变化对水文水资源影响方面的研究方法, 分析了气候变化条件下水文水资源变化的研究现状和存在问题.并以山西省和黄河源区为研究对象, 以分布式水文模型为工具、GCMs输出的气候情景为输入条件, 针对不同的下垫面特征建立不同的分布式水文模型, 分别采用气候情景趋势分析结果和直接利用GCMs输出结果两类方法确定气候变化的数据源, 对研究区域未来的地表径流过程和地表水资源可能的变化趋势进行了研究.从气候情景的预测结果来看, 未来50年山西省的气温和降水都呈增加趋势, 但由于各自对水资源带来的影响不同, 将使山西省水资源呈现先增加后减少的趋势; 且由于冬季气温和降水的增幅比夏季大, 使得未来山西省的水资源年内分布有略微平缓的趋势.对黄河源区而言, 虽然未来100年内的降水和气温都呈增加趋势, 但由于降水增长引起的地表水资源的增加不足以抵消气温升高带来的影响, 因此将导致径流量不断降低的总体趋势, 并使径流年内分布略趋平缓, 而年际分布将越来越不均匀, 旱涝威胁日趋严峻.Abstract: In recent years, climate change, with its far-reaching influences, has emerged as a popular issue.Among the various aspects of climate change, its impact on the terrestrial water cycle has been regarded as one of the most important issues, because it directly affects human settlement and ecosystem.The paper reviews previous studies first, and then pointed out their weakness and future research focuses.As practices, the impacts of climate change on surface runoff and water resources in Shanxi Province and the head region of Yellow River were studied here.And results of 7 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Third Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from IPCC Data Distribution Center web page was employed as future potential climate change.Different distributed hydrologic models based on local underlying surface were developed in order to evaluate the impacts on water resources.Future potential climate change of Shanxi Province were assessed by integrating outputs of GCMs, whereas which of the head region of Yellow River were come from results of different GCMs directly.Conclusionsshow that both precipitation and temperature of Shanxi Province would be increasing before 2050, but the surface water resources would increase before 2030 and then decrease, because the impact of future temperature increase on runoff would be less than that of precipitation increase before 2030 but more than it after 2030.And on the head region of Yellow River, temperature and precipitation would also increase.But the quantity of runoff would be decreasing in next 100 years for the region belongs to high and cold areas, which would make the impact of temperature increase on runoff larger than that of precipitation.And the distribution of runoff would be more even in years but more uneven among years, the latter may imply the higher possibility of drought and flood.
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Key words:
- climate change /
- global climate model /
- distributed hydrological model /
- surface runoff
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表 1 选用的气候模式
Table 1. Climate models employed
表 2 山西省未来气温变化(单位: ℃)
Table 2. Changes of future temperature in Shanxi Province
表 3 山西省未来降雨变化(单位: mm)
Table 3. Changes of future precipitation in Shanxi Province
表 4 山西省各行政区未来水资源变化趋势
Table 4. Trends of future water resources change in Shanxi Province
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