Groundwater Numerical Simulation and Forecasting of Heilongdong Spring Area
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摘要: 为了对黑龙洞泉域水资源进行评价, 通过对地质条件、水位观测资料的深入研究, 以水均衡原理、地下水渗流理论为基础, 建立了黑龙洞泉域地下水渗流数值模型.以灰色序列预测模型为辅助手段, 结合历年的降水规律, 对未来现状开采条件下的年均降水量、地下水流场、水位及泉流量进行了不同保证率条件下的预测, 若2010年为丰水年(保证率20%)、平水年(保证率50%)、枯水年(保证率75%), 黑龙洞泉汛期地下水位标高分别为超过130m、达到130m、低于130m, 汛期泉流量分别为超过10m3/s、7m3/s、5m3/s.计算结果有利于指导黑龙洞泉域地下水资源的管理和开发利用.Abstract: In order to evaluate the water resources of the whole drainage area of HeiLongdong, the pape establishes groundwater seepage model of the whole spring area of HeiLongdong through the in-depth research of geological condition and the date of water level of this area based on water balance theory, groundwater seepage flow theory and Galerkin finite element theory. Moreover, with the assistance of grey series forecasting model and the rule of the annual precipitation, the annual average precipitation, groundwater flow field, groundwater level and spring flow in the future under current exploitation circumstances were forecasted. If 2010 is a high flow year (guarantee ratio 20%), or median flow year (guarantee ratio 50%), or even low flow year (guarantee ratio 75%), the underground water level of HeiLongdong spring in flood season will exceed 130m, or reach 130m, or even below 130m, and the spring flow in flood season will exceed 10m3 /s, 7m3/s, 5m3/s respectively. The result of prediction is of great significance to management and exploitation of water resources in HeiLongdong spring area.
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图 1 黑龙洞泉域观测井布置及水文地质分区图
Fig. 1. Sketch map showing groundwater level observation well and hydrogeologic zoning of Heilongdong spring area
图 2 羊角铺观测井(a) 及黑龙洞泉流量(b) 拟合曲线
Fig. 2. Fitting graph of Yangjiaopu observation well (a) and Heilongdong spring flow (b)
图 3 2010年羊角铺观测井水位标高预测曲线
Fig. 3. Forecasted graph of groundwater level of Yangjiaopu observation well in 2010
图 5 2010年不同保证率情况下黑龙洞泉流量预测曲线
Fig. 5. Forecasted graph of Heilongdong spring flow of different guarantee ratio in 2010
表 1 水均衡计算(单位: 104m3)
Table 1. Statistical data of water balance
表 2 黑龙洞泉域水文地质参数统计
Table 2. Statistical dala of hydrogeologic parameters of Heilongdong spring area
表 3 黑龙洞泉域年均降水量及入渗量预测(单位: mm)
Table 3. Forecasted annual average precipitation amount and infiltration capacity of Heilongdong spring area
表 4 黑龙洞泉域2010年不同保证率的降水量及入渗量预测(单位: mm)
Table 4. Forecasted annual average precipitation amount and infiltration capacity of different guarantee ratio in 2010 of Heilongdong spring area
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