| Citation: | Huang Faming, Chen Jiawu, Fan Xuanmei, Huang Jinsong, Zhou Chuangbing, 2022. Logistic Regression Fitting of Rainfall-Induced Landslide Occurrence Probability and Continuous Landslide Hazard Prediction Modelling. Earth Science, 47(12): 4609-4628. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2021.164
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It is significant to improve the warning accuracy and spatial identification of rainfall-induced landslides. This study takes 156 typical rainfall-induced landslide events from 1980 to 2001 in Ningdu County Jiangxi Province, China as a case. Firstly, the time probability levels of different rainfall-induced landslides are calculated based on traditional EE-D (early effective rainfall-rainfall duration) threshold. Then taking each time probability corresponding to each level critical rainfall threshold curve as dependent variable, and its early effective rainfall (early effective rainfall, EE) and rainfall duration (D) as independent variables, logistic regression is adopted to fitting nonlinear mapping relationship between probability of rainfall-induced landslides and EE and D to obtain continuous probability of landslides. Furthermore, prediction performance of landslide susceptibility between C5.0 decision tree and multilayer perceptron is compared. Finally, continuous probability of rainfall-induced landslides is coupled with landslide susceptibility to realize continuous landslide hazard warning. Results show follows: (1) logistic regression fitting equation of continuous probability rainfall-induced landslides is 1/P=1+e4.062+0.747 4×D-0.079 44×EE with R2 of 0.983. (2) most of 20 rainfall-induced landslides from 2002 to 2003 used for continuous probability critical rainfall threshold test fell in areas with continuous probability greater than 0.7, and only 4 of them fell in areas less than 0.7. (3) the C5.0 DT model has a better prediction performance than the multilayer perceptron. (4) the continuous probability hazard values of four rainfall-type landslides in the past five years are above 0.8, and the areas of high and very high warning zone are smaller than those of traditional landslide hazard warning. It is concluded that compared with the traditional hazard zoning method, the continuous landslide hazard warning method has higher warning accuracy and spatial identification, and the real time landslide hazard map carrying out spatial and time warning can be obtained through combination of landslide critical rainfall threshold and landslide susceptibility map.
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