Evalution on High Pobabilistic Seismic-Led Heavy Metal Non-Point Source Pollution

To minimize the unexpected seismic damage, it is significant to evaluate the potantial seismic risk in the high probabilisitic seismic hazard zones and take effective precautionary measures. This paper aims to evaluate the risk of heavy metal non-point source pollution caused by seismic-led industrial building collapse. It is based on the seismic hazard of 10-percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, and the minimum value of the water quality standard in Sichuan, China. The method of Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number (CN) was used to compute the daily runoff depth, and to estimate the potential risk state of non-point source heavy metal pollution combined with the seismic damage index and population index. The results indicate: (1) eleven sub-basins are under the potential risk of seismic-led non-point source heavy metal pollution; (2) Compared to other heavy metal pollutants, more sub-basins are under the risk of Cr⁶⁺ pollution, and are mainly distributed in the northeast, central and south central of Sichuan province, whereas high risk subbasins of other heavy metal pollutants are most located in the south central areas of Sichuan province; (3) considering the population index, the high risk areas of Cr⁶⁺ pollution are mainly in the southeast of sub-basins W1 and W2, while those subjected to pollution of other heavy metals are mostly in the north of sub-basin W4.