基于变系数回归模型的三峡库区滑坡位移预测

喻孟良; 梅红波; 李冀骅; 赵慧; 吴润泽

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2016.118

Volume 41 Issue 9

Sep. 2016

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Article Navigation > Earth Science > 2016 > 41(9): 1593-1602

Yu Mengliang, Mei Hongbo, Li Jihua, Zhao Hui, Wu Runze, 2016. Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on Varying Coefficient Regression Model in Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Earth Science, 41(9): 1593-1602. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2016.118

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Yu Mengliang, Mei Hongbo, Li Jihua, Zhao Hui, Wu Runze, 2016. Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on Varying Coefficient Regression Model in Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Earth Science, 41(9): 1593-1602. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2016.118

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Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on Varying Coefficient Regression Model in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2016.118

Yu Mengliang^{1,2
,},
Mei Hongbo^{3
,
,},
Li Jihua⁴,
Zhao Hui²,
Wu Runze⁵

1.
Faculty of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
2.
China Institute of Geo-Environment Monitoring, Beijing 100081, China
3.
Faculty of Earth Resources, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
4.
School of Computer Science, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
5.
Command of Geological Hazard Control in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Yichang 443000, China

Received Date: 2016-01-22
Publish Date: 2016-09-15

Abstract

Abstract

Landslides in Three Gorges reservoir area are affected by both the rainfall and the reservoir water, but their respective contribution and the laws of the landslide evolution remain unclear. In this paper, we analyzed the rainfall and water level data, and applied a varying coefficient regression model for landslide displacement prediction taking Shuping landslide and Bazimen landslide in the reservoir area as the study area. The results of experiments show that the improved varying coefficient regression model is not only more accurate than traditional linear regression model, auto-regressive Integrated moving average model and support vector mchine model, but also it can give quantitative contribution of each factor on the landslide displacement.
- Three Gorges reservoir area,
- rainfall,
- reservoir water,
- varying coefficient regression model,
- landslide displacement prediction,
- numerical models

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References(23)

References

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