Evolution Stage Division of Landslide Based on Analysis of Multivariate Time Series

Curves of cumulative displacement vs. time of the landslide generally include the stages of the initial deformation, constant speed deformation and accelerated deformation. Different deformation stages have their own different acceleration characteristics. Now the evolution of landslide can be divided by analyzing the characteristics of acceleration curve. But it lacks theoretical basis and quantitative calculation. To the above problems, the rainfall of current month and reservoir level fluctuation of current month are selected as influencing factors, and the multivariate time series model is adopted to predict the cumulative displacement. Taking the maximum points of F statistic and log-likelihood ratio statistic of the multivariate time series model as segmentation points divides the evolution stages of landslide based on the theory of Chow breakpoint test. This model is used to deal with the data of cumulative displacement, rainfall and reservoir level fluctuation of Xintan landslide and Baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area. The results indicate that the Chow breakpoint test on the multivariate time series prediction model based on the inducing factors and the landslide displacement has certain validity and application value. This division of the landslide evolution stage can provide an important criterion for the early-warning prediction of landslide.