鲁甸地震(<i>M</i><sub>s</sub>6.5)临震预测、中期预测及中地壳流变结构

曾佐勋; 刘根深; 李献瑞; 贺赤诚; 杨学祥; 杨冬红

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2014.159

Volume 39 Issue 12

Dec. 2014

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Article Navigation > Earth Science > 2014 > 39(12): 1751-1762

Zeng Zuoxun, Liu Genshen, Li Xianrui, He Chicheng, Yang Xuexiang, Yang Donghong, 2014. Imminent and Medium-Term Predictions for Ludian Earthquake (Ms6.5) and Rheological Structure of the Middle Crust. Earth Science, 39(12): 1751-1762. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2014.159

Citation:

Zeng Zuoxun, Liu Genshen, Li Xianrui, He Chicheng, Yang Xuexiang, Yang Donghong, 2014. Imminent and Medium-Term Predictions for Ludian Earthquake (M_s6.5) and Rheological Structure of the Middle Crust. Earth Science, 39(12): 1751-1762. doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2014.159

Citation:

PDF( 1790 KB)

Imminent and Medium-Term Predictions for Ludian Earthquake (M_s6.5) and Rheological Structure of the Middle Crust

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2014.159

Zeng Zuoxun^{1, 2, 3
,},
Liu Genshen³,
Li Xianrui^{3, 4},
He Chicheng^{2, 3},
Yang Xuexiang⁵,
Yang Donghong^{6, 7
,
,}

1.
Three Gorges Research Center for Geo-hazard, Ministry of Education, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
2.
School of Earth Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
3.
Huazhong Tectonomechanical Research Center, Wuhan 430074, China
4.
Institute of Geophysics & Geomatics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
5.
College of Geo-exploration Science and Technology, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China
6.
Research Center of Palaeontology & Stratigraphy, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China
7.
Key-Lab for Evolution of Past Life and Environment in Northeast Asia, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changcun 130026, China

Received Date: 2014-09-20
Publish Date: 2014-12-01

Abstract

Abstract

At 16:30 of August 3rd, 2014, an earthquake with a magnitude of M_s 6.5 occurred in Ludian County of Zhaotong City, Yunnan Province (27.1°N, 103.3°E). The depth of the hypocenter is 10 km. Due to this disaster, 617 people were died, 112 people disappeared and 108 840 000 people were injured. According to the superposition effects of the moon declination angle, sunspot extreme year cycles and the two, summed up 2013—2014 years is Yunnan strong earthquake periods of high risk, with the condition for the occurrence of M_s7 earthquake. The following year, forecast method based SW fingerprint information using the earthquake precursory instrument, developed by the end of 2014 211 earthquake prediction table, predict 2014 August Sichuan (26.18°N, 105.33°E) M_s5.3 earthquake will occur. The Ludian M_s 6.5 earthquake occurred on August 3, 2014 indicates that the error of the predicted date is only 1 day, the predicted epicenter is about 226 km away from the actual earthquake epicenter. Besides that the actual magnitude is M_s 1.2 larger than the predicted magnitude. According to the comprehensive analysis in tectonic setting, the S-wave crustal velocity structure and the focus mechanism of the Ludian earthquake, we believe that the Baogunao-Xiaohe left-lateral strike-slip fault triggered the Ludian earthquake, while the junction of the middle-low crust's low-velocity (high-conductivity) body and the Baogunao-Xiaohe fault is the location of the focus releasing the accumulated energy which practically is the epicenter.This provides a new case study of the three-level tectonic model for intraplate earthquakes.
- Ludian earthquake,
- imminent prediction,
- medium-term prediction,
- Baogunao-Xiaohe fracture,
- three-level tectonic model,
- earthquakes

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References(125)

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Imminent and Medium-Term Predictions for Ludian Earthquake (Ms6.5) and Rheological Structure of the Middle Crust

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Imminent and Medium-Term Predictions for Ludian Earthquake (M_s6.5) and Rheological Structure of the Middle Crust