Evolution of Glacier Debris Flow and Its Monitoring System along Sichuan-Tibet Traffic Corridor
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摘要: 川藏交通廊道沿线山高谷深，地层岩性多变，新构造运动活跃，气候恶劣复杂，导致滑坡、崩塌、泥石流、冰湖溃决洪水等灾害极其发育，对铁路施工及运营带来严重影响.林芝-波密段就是典型地质灾害高发区域，常年受到冰川泥石流的影响，是川藏交通廊道重大灾害防治的难点区段.虽然目前在单沟尺度上对冰川泥石流的形成条件、影响因素、物源性质取得了一定的认识，但对于川藏交通廊道沿线不同类型的冰川泥石流诱发因素、区域发展演化规律及灾变指标的研究还较为初步，尚未构建完善的监测预警体系.借助多源长时序遥感影像、气象监测数据，结合野外实地验证和历史数据分析发现：川藏交通廊道周边区域冰川泥石流沟谷共99条，主要分布于恰青冰川-易贡乡、加拉贝垒-南迦巴瓦峰和古乡沟-嘎隆寺冰川一带；过去40年冰川经历了复杂的流动速度变化，表现为较小高海拔悬冰川活动性增强，大型沟谷冰川活动性减弱；自1973年以来，研究区冰川泥石流呈现频率增高、规模增大的特征.此外，从冰川泥石流发育沟道比降来看，发生高陡地形的滑坡、冰-岩崩诱发的泥石流频率增加.未来，冰川持续退缩，促使冰川源区冰瀑消失，发育更大规模的悬冰川，会增加这类冰川泥石流的风险；冰川泥石流形成及演化过程具有明显的灾变指标，如悬冰川裂隙密度增加、冰川速度增强、冰湖面积快速增加等.因此，基于以上认识，建议针对不同类型的冰川泥石流地建立完善的监测预警指标，并提出了融合卫星、航空遥感平台，气象、水文地面监测平台，地震动监测平台的冰川泥石流“空-天-地”立体监测框架，针对不同类型冰川泥石流进行灾变信息监测与预警判识，为川藏交通廊道安全施工运营提供技术参考.Abstract: The Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor is an important transportation strategy in China that plays a key role in the economic prosperity, long-term stability, and the "Belt and Road" strategy in western China. However, the complex terrain, climate environment and active geological tectonic movements along the Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor lead to extremely developed geo-hazards, such as debris flows, landslides, glacial lake outbreak floods (GLOF), which have serious impacts on railway construction and operation. As a representative section, the Linzhi-Bomi is frequently affected by glacier debris flows, and deemed as the most difficult section for disaster mitigation. Although some conclusions about influencing factors and material properties of glacial debris flows have been achieved at the single-valley scale, there is lacking solid research on predisposing factors, evolution laws and catastrophe indicators of different types of glacial debris flows along the Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor, making it impossible to build an effective monitoring and early warning system. In this paper, multi-source long-term remote sensing images and meteorological monitoring data, combined with field data, are applied to conduct an inductive analysis of the glacial debris flow along the Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor. Four conclusions can be drawn. (1) 99 glacial debris flow valleys were identified in the study area, that mainly distributed in the Chaqing glacier-Yigong township, Jialabelei-Nangabawa peak, and Guxiang gully-Galongsi glacier. (2) Climate environment change has led to complex responses in glacier activities, characterised by increased activity of smaller glaciers (high-altitude hanging glaciers) and weakened activity of glaciers in large valleys in the past 40 years; (3) Based on the historic inventory, it can be found that the glacial debris flow has shown the characteristics of increasing frequency and scale since 1973. And (4) the frequency of the debris flows induced by landslides and ice-rock avalanches in steep terrain has increased. In the future, the continuous retreat of glaciers will promote the disappearance of ice waterfalls and the development of larger-scale hanging glaciers, which will increase the risk of glacial debris flows. The evolution process of glacial debris flows has obvious catastrophic indicators, such as: the increasing crevice density, the change in glacier velocities, and the rapid increase of glacial lake areas. Finally, it proposes a monitoring and early warning framework that contains satellites, aerial remote sensing platforms, meteorological and hydrological ground monitoring platforms, and ground motion monitoring platforms, which can provide catastrophic information for different types of glacial debris flows.
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图 2 研究区周围气象站的气候数据(1981—2018年)
Fig. 2. Climate data of meteorological stations around the study area (1981—2018)
图 3 研究区重大地震事件(1970—2020年)
地震数据来源于美国国家地质调查局；a.震级大于5.3级地震事件；b.米林地震前，其周边冰川12月份运动速度图；c.米林地震后，其周边冰川12月份运动速度图
Fig. 3. Major earthquake events in the study area (1970—2020)
图 5 川藏交通廊道沿线冰川泥石流空间分布
Fig. 5. Spatial distribution of glacier debris flows along Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor
图 6 川藏交通廊道沿线冰川泥石流频次-规模演进(1973—2021年)
Fig. 6. Frequency scale evolution diagram of glacial debris flows along Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor (1973—2021)
图 7 培龙沟融水-降雨型石流及母冰川速度变化
Fig. 7. Meltwater-rainfall debris flow in Peilong gully and glacier velocity
图 8 色东普冰-岩崩泥石流
a.悬冰川裂隙发育；b.冰-岩崩泥石流侵蚀特征；c.2016年活跃的主沟道冰川
Fig. 8. Ice-rock avalanche induced debris flow in Sedongpu gully
图 9 川藏交通廊道沿线大型冰湖分布及面积变化(1986—2020年)
Fig. 9. Distribution and area variation of large glacial lakes along Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor (1986—2020)
图 10 “天-空-地”冰川泥石流监测体系
Fig. 10. Glacier debris flow monitoring system based on "Space-Sky-Ground" platforms
表 1 遥感影像数据
Table 1. Remote sensing images used in this study
卫星 时间
(日/月/年)影像数量 分辨率(m) 重访周期(d) 用途 数据源 Corona KH-4A 03/03/1967, 02/05/1968 2 3 - 冰川泥石流识别 USGS Hexagon KH-9 16/11/1973 1 6 - 冰川泥石流识别 USGS Aster 18/11/2002—02/08/2015 12 15 - 冰川泥石流识别 USGS Landsat 1 16/12/1972 1 60 - 冰川泥石流识别 USGS Landsat 4-5 05/01/1988—04/11/2011 46 30 16 冰川泥石流识别 USGS Landsat 7 24/09/1999—08/02/2021 13 30 16 冰川泥石流识别、冰川速度提取 USGS Landsat 8 20/07/2013—16/02/2021 16 15/30 16 冰川泥石流识别、冰川速度提取 USGS Sentinel 1A (GRD) 12/16/2014—12/31/2018 82 20 12 冰川速度提取 ESA Sentinel 2A/B 12/06/2015—12/25/2018 32 10/60 5 冰川泥石流识别、冰川速度提取 ESA Ziyuan-3 20171211, 20181130 2 2 - 数值高程(DEM)提取 CCRSDA GaoFen-1 11/18/2013—12/06/2019 13 2/8 - 冰川泥石流识别 CCRSDA GaoFen-2 01/17/2016—12/26/2018 5 0.8/3.2 - 冰川泥石流识别 CCRSDA 注：数据来源美国地质调查局(USGS)(https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/)；欧洲航天局(ESA)(https://scihub.copernicus.eu/)；中国资源卫星数据与应用中心(CCRSDA)(http://www.cresda.com/EN/). 
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表 2 色东普沟历史冰川泥石流事件(1973—2018年)
Table 2. Historical glacier debris flow in Sedongpu gully (1973—2018)
遥感时间
(日/月/年)事件类型 是否堵江 诱发因素 21/12/1973 冰崩泥石流 全堵 - 30/06/1977 冰崩泥石流 全堵 - 04/11/1994 冰崩 否 - 15/11/1998 冰崩 否 - 13/11/2012 冰崩 否 - 03/11/2014 冰崩泥石流 全堵 - 20/11/2016 冰崩 否 - 22/10/2017 冰崩泥石流 半堵 鲁朗地震(4.0级) 03/11/2017 泥石流 半堵 - 18/11/2017 冰崩泥石流 半堵 米林地震(6.9级)* 24/07/2018 冰崩泥石流 否 - 17/10/2018 冰崩泥石流 大规模堵江 - 29/10/2018 泥石流 堵江 - 注：*据刘传正等(2019).
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