Numerical Simulation of Relationship between Stress Field Evolution and Historical Strong Earthquakes in Taiyuan Basin
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摘要: 近年来，太原盆地内尽管没有强震发生，小震却异常活跃，而研究太原盆地构造应力场的分布和演化规律的工作比较少.采用有限元数值方法，综合考虑区域地质构造差异、主要活动断裂带、地形起伏和岩石圈分层结构，引入深部速度结构，建立包含太原盆地在内的山西地区三维粘弹性模型.以GPS观测值和最大主压应力方向测量值为约束条件，重建研究区现今构造背景应力场.在此基础上，依次模拟了自公元512年以来太原盆地6级以上和山西地震带7级以上历史强震序列.计算结果显示，太原盆地内的3次6级以上历史地震均落在应力场增加值大于0.01 MPa的区域，盆地近年来小震空间分布与现今应力增加值大于0.01 MPa的区域有较好的对应关系.研究表明：山西地震带内历史强震序列和长期构造加载对太原盆地内3次历史强震均有促进作用，太原盆地的地震活动性明显受区域当前应力水平的控制.Abstract: In recent years, although no strong earthquakes occurred in Taiyuan basin, small earthquakes were very active. However, the research on the distribution and evolution of tectonic stress field in Taiyuan basin is very little. The 3-D viscoelastic finite element model of Shanxi area including Taiyuan basin is built by applying the finite element numerical method in this paper. In addition, the difference of regional geological structure, the main active fault zone, irregular topography and layered lithosphere structure synthetically, as well as the seismic velocity structure of the crust and mantle, are considered when building the model. Moreover, the present tectonic background stress field in the research area is reconstructed by the constraint of the observed values of GPS and direction of the maximum principal compressive stress. On these bases, the historical strong earthquake sequences with M ≥ 6 in Taiyuan basin and with M ≥ 7 in Shanxi seismic zone since AD 512 are simulated, respectively. The calculated results illustrate that the three historical strong earthquakes in Taiyuan basin are all located in the area where stress field increased more than 0.01 MPa, and the spatial distribution of small earthquakes in recent years has a good correlation with the present stress field change greater than 0.01 MPa. The results show that the historical strong earthquake sequence in Shanxi seismic zone and long-term tectonic stress loading both promoted the three historical strong earthquakes in Taiyuan basin. The present seismic activity of Taiyuan basin is obviously controlled by the current stress level in the area.
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图 1 太原盆地及邻区主要断裂带及历史强震分布
主要断裂带数据源自“基于GIS的地震分析预报系统”软件提供的中国断层数据；历史强震数据源自“基于GIS的地震分析预报系统”软件提供的地震数据
Fig. 1. Distribution of main faults and historic strong earthquakes in Taiyuan basin and its adjacent area
图 2 包含太原盆地在内的山西地区三维有限元模型
Fig. 2. imensional FEM model of Shanxi area including Taiyuan basin
图 3 三维模型从Moho面(上表面)到100 km深度(下表面)的材料参数
Fig. 3. Material parameter of 3D model from Moho (upper surface) to 100 km (lower surface) depth
图 5 模拟值与观测值的比较
a.地壳水平运动速率模拟值与观测值的比较；b.最大主压应力方向模拟值与观测值的比较
Fig. 5. Comparison of simulated values and the observed values
图 6 太原盆地等效应力年变化(a)和最大剪应力年变化(b)
Fig. 6. Annual variation of effective stress (a) and max shear stress (b) in Taiyuan basin
图 7 太原盆地512年以来等效应力演化
a.1038年定襄7¼地震后，1102年太原6½地震前；b.1303年洪洞8.0地震后，1614年平遥6½地震前；c.1614年平遥6½地震后，1618年介休6½地震前；d.1830年磁县7½地震后，1989年阳高6.1地震前.红色实心圆圈表示后继地震位置，虚线表示0等值线
Fig. 7. Evolution of effective stress in Taiyuan basin since AD 512
图 8 太原盆地512年以来最大剪应力演化
a.1038年定襄7¼地震后，1102年太原6½地震前；b.1303年洪洞8.0地震后，1614年平遥6½地震前；c.1614年平遥6½地震后，1618年介休6½地震前；d.1830年磁县7½地震后，1989年阳高6.1地震前.红色实心圆圈表示后继地震位置，虚线表示0等值线
Fig. 8. Evolution of max shear stress in Taiyuanbasin since AD 512
图 9 自512年以来历史地震震源处的等效应力变化曲线
a.1102年太原地震前震源处；b.1614年平遥地震前震源处；c.1618年介休地震前震源处
Fig. 9. Effective stress evolution at the epicenter of historical strong earthquake in Taiyuan basin since AD 512
图 10 自512年以来历史地震震源处的最大剪应力变化曲线
a.1102年太原地震前震源处；b.1614年平遥地震前震源处；c.1618年介休地震前震源处
Fig. 10. Max shear stress evolution at the epicenter of historical strong earthquake in Taiyuan basin since AD 512
图 11 2008年后太原盆地等效应力场与小震分布(a)和最大剪应力场与小震分布(b)
Fig. 11. Effective stress variation and distribution (a) and max shear stress variation and distribution (b) of small earthquake in Taiyuan basin after 2008
图 12 2009年1月—2015年10月太原盆地ML2.0级以上中小震震源机制解空间分布
红色为正断型地震，蓝色为走滑型地震，黑色为逆冲型地震，皮球大小表示震级
Fig. 12. Distribution of focal mechanism for moderate and small earthquake with ML≥2.0 in Taiyuan basin from January 2009 to October 2015
表 1 三维模型的粘滞系数
Table 1. Coefficient of viscosity of 3-dimensinal model
分层深度(km) η(1020 Pa·s) 上地壳地表~-20 1.0×103 下地壳-20~Moho面 1.0×102 岩石圈上地幔Moho面~-80 1.0×10 软流圈上地幔-80~-100 1.0 
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表 2 模拟中用到512年以来太原盆地6级以上和山西地震带7级以上地震目录及震源参数
Table 2. Earthquake catalogue and source parameter of earthquakes with M≥6 in Taiyuan basin and earthquakes with M≥7 in Shanxi seismic zone in simulation
序号 时间 震中位置 M 发震断层 破裂长度(km) 水平错动(cm) 参考文献 年—月—日 地点 经度(°E) 纬度(°N) 1 512-05-23 原平、代县间 112.8 38.9 7½ 五台山北麓、西麓 80.7 185.5 (1) 2 1038-01-15 定襄、忻定间 112.9 38.4 7¼ 系舟山山前 57.0 93.6 (1) 3 1102-01-22 太原 112.4 37.7 6½ 交城 34.3 12.5 (2) 4 1303-09-25 洪洞 111.7 36.3 8.0 霍山山前 85.0 402.5 (1, 3~5) 5 1614-10-23 平遥 112.1 37.2 6½ 太谷 34.3 10.9 (2) 6 1618-05-20 介休 111.9 37.0 6½ 太谷 41.8 12.5 (2, 6) 7 1626-06-28 灵丘 114.2 39.4 7.0 太白维山前 86.6 19.7 (1~2) 8 1683-11-22 原平 112.7 38.7 7.0 五台山西麓 70.0 34.4 (2) 9 1695-05-18 临汾 111.5 36.0 8.0 临汾-浮山 62.2 447.5 (2, 5, 7~8) 10 1830-06-12 河北磁县 114.3 36.4 7½ 磁县-大明 57.0 173.9 (1~2, 9) 注：(1)刘光勋等(1993)；(2)沈正康等(2004)；(3)江娃利等(2004)；(4)徐锡伟等(1993)；(5)刁桂苓等(2007)；(6)殷娜和韩军青(2010)；(7)王挺梅等(1993)；(8)武烈(1995)；(9)许华明等(2010).
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