鲁甸地震(<i>M</i><sub>s</sub>6.5)临震预测、中期预测及中地壳流变结构

曾佐勋; 刘根深; 李献瑞; 贺赤诚; 杨学祥; 杨冬红

doi:10.3799/dqkx.2014.159

鲁甸地震(M_s6.5)临震预测、中期预测及中地壳流变结构

doi: 10.3799/dqkx.2014.159

曾佐勋^{1, 2, 3,},
刘根深³,
李献瑞^{3, 4},
贺赤诚^{2, 3},
杨学祥⁵,
杨冬红^{6, 7, ,}

1.
中国地质大学教育部长江三峡库区地质灾害研究中心, 湖北武汉 430074
2.
中国地质大学地球科学学院, 湖北武汉 430074
3.
中国地质大学华中构造力学研究中心, 湖北武汉 430074
4.
中国地质大学地球物理与空间信息学院, 湖北武汉 430074
5.
吉林大学地球探测科学与技术学院, 吉林长春 130026
6.
吉林大学古生物学与地层学研究中心, 吉林长春 130026
7.
吉林大学东北亚生物演化与环境教育部重点实验室, 吉林长春 130026

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金重点项目 41230206

国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目 41404041

详细信息

作者简介:
曾佐勋(1954-), 男, 教授, 主要从事构造地质学教学和科研.E-mail: zuoxun.zeng@126.com

通讯作者:
杨冬红, E-mail: yangdonghong@jlu.edu.cn

中图分类号: P315.7
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2014-09-20
- 刊出日期: 2014-12-01

Imminent and Medium-Term Predictions for Ludian Earthquake (M_s6.5) and Rheological Structure of the Middle Crust

Zeng Zuoxun^{1, 2, 3
,},
Liu Genshen³,
Li Xianrui^{3, 4},
He Chicheng^{2, 3},
Yang Xuexiang⁵,
Yang Donghong^{6, 7
, ,}

1.
Three Gorges Research Center for Geo-hazard, Ministry of Education, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
2.
School of Earth Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
3.
Huazhong Tectonomechanical Research Center, Wuhan 430074, China
4.
Institute of Geophysics & Geomatics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
5.
College of Geo-exploration Science and Technology, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China
6.
Research Center of Palaeontology & Stratigraphy, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China
7.
Key-Lab for Evolution of Past Life and Environment in Northeast Asia, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changcun 130026, China

摘要

摘要: 2014年8月3日16时30分, 在云南省昭通市鲁甸县(27.1°N, 103.3°E)发生M_s6.5地震, 震源深度10 km, 死亡617人, 失踪112人, 受伤3 143人, 受灾人口108.84万人.根据月亮赤纬角、太阳黑子极值年等周期变化及两者的叠加效应, 总结出2013—2014年是云南强震高危期, 具备M_s7地震的发生条件.次年, 利用基础SW前兆仪的临震预测指纹法信息, 制定了2014年底211号地震预测表, 预测了2014年8月四川(26.18°N, 105.33°E)将发生M_s5.3地震发生.2014年8月3日云南鲁甸M_s6.5地震表明: 这次地震的指纹法预测时间相差1天, 震中相差226 km, 震级误差M_s1.2.通过构造背景、地壳速度结构和震源机制研究, NW向的包谷垴-小河左旋走滑断裂是鲁甸地震的发震断裂.中下地壳低速(高导)体与包谷垴-小河断裂交接部位是流变界面能量释放的位置, 即本次地震的震源位置, 为板内地震三层次构造模式提供了一个新的案例.
- 鲁甸地震 /
- 临震预测 /
- 中期预测 /
- 包谷垴-小河断裂 /
- 三层次构造模式 /
- 天然地震
Abstract: At 16:30 of August 3rd, 2014, an earthquake with a magnitude of M_s 6.5 occurred in Ludian County of Zhaotong City, Yunnan Province (27.1°N, 103.3°E). The depth of the hypocenter is 10 km. Due to this disaster, 617 people were died, 112 people disappeared and 108 840 000 people were injured. According to the superposition effects of the moon declination angle, sunspot extreme year cycles and the two, summed up 2013—2014 years is Yunnan strong earthquake periods of high risk, with the condition for the occurrence of M_s7 earthquake. The following year, forecast method based SW fingerprint information using the earthquake precursory instrument, developed by the end of 2014 211 earthquake prediction table, predict 2014 August Sichuan (26.18°N, 105.33°E) M_s5.3 earthquake will occur. The Ludian M_s 6.5 earthquake occurred on August 3, 2014 indicates that the error of the predicted date is only 1 day, the predicted epicenter is about 226 km away from the actual earthquake epicenter. Besides that the actual magnitude is M_s 1.2 larger than the predicted magnitude. According to the comprehensive analysis in tectonic setting, the S-wave crustal velocity structure and the focus mechanism of the Ludian earthquake, we believe that the Baogunao-Xiaohe left-lateral strike-slip fault triggered the Ludian earthquake, while the junction of the middle-low crust's low-velocity (high-conductivity) body and the Baogunao-Xiaohe fault is the location of the focus releasing the accumulated energy which practically is the epicenter.This provides a new case study of the three-level tectonic model for intraplate earthquakes.
- Ludian earthquake /
- imminent prediction /
- medium-term prediction /
- Baogunao-Xiaohe fracture /
- three-level tectonic model /
- earthquakes

HTML全文

图 1 云南鲁甸地震区域构造背景

F1.安宁河断裂；F2.则木河断裂带；F3.小江断裂带北段；F4.大凉山断裂带；F5.峨边-烟峰断裂带；F6.马边-盐津断裂带；F7.莲峰断裂带；F8.龙树断裂；F9.鲁甸-昭通断裂；F10.会泽-彝良断裂带；F11.华蓥山断裂带；F12.包谷垴-小河断裂；AB.研究区内S波速度结构剖面位置；震源机制解资料来自CMT，http://www.globalcmt.org/CMTsearch.html

Fig. 1. The tectonic background of Ludian earthquake in Yunnan Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2014年7月30日(a) 与2014年3月30日(b)第六通道“指纹”对比

Fig. 2. Comparison between fingerprints from the channel 6 observed on July 30th, 2014(a) and on March 30th, 2014(b)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 地壳及上地幔S波速度结构剖面(张晓曼等，2011)

Fig. 3. The profile of S-wave velocity structure of crust and upper mantle

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 研究区8-638阶(10 km)卫星重力异常及历史地震分布

Fig. 4. The satellite gravity anomalies of 8-638 order and history earthquakes distribution map in study area

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 20世纪以来白赤交角、太阳黑子与云南强震关系

Table 1. The relationship among the moon declination angle, sunspot number and major earthquake in Yunnan province

白赤交角		太阳黑子		云南强震活跃期	震级大于M_s7.0强震
最大年	最小年	谷值	峰值	云南强震活跃期	震级大于M_s7.0强震
1913	1922	1913	1917	第1活跃期	1913峨山M_s7.0
1913	1922	1923	1917	第1活跃期	1925大理凤仪M_s7.0
1932	1941	1933	1937	第2活跃期	1941澜沧耿马M_s7.0
1932	1941	1944	1937	第2活跃期	1941勐海M_s7.0
1950	1959	1954	1957		1950勐海M_s7.0
1969	1978		1968	第3活跃期	1970通海峨山M_s7.7
		1964			1974昭通大关M_s7.1
		1976			1976龙陵M_s7.3
					1976龙陵M_s7.4
1987	1996		1989	第4活跃期	1988澜沧M_s7.6
		1986			1988耿马M_s7.2
		1996			1995孟连M_s7.3
					1996丽江M_s7.0
2005—2007	2014—2016	2009	2014	第5活跃期	只发生了普洱M_s6.4(2007年)、盈江M_s5.9(2008年)、本次鲁甸M_s6.5(2014年)和景谷M_s6.6(2014年)地震.暂未发生M_s7.0以上地震
2005—2007	2014—2016	2022	2014	第5活跃期
注：观测确定2008—2009年为太阳黑子谷年，2014年预测为太阳黑子峰年(据胡辉等(2003)，杨冬红(2009)，杨冬红和杨学祥(2013)修改).

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